A campaign group has warned that the recall system could undo the Government’s early release scheme. Its warning came as the first prisoners walked free under the new earned progression model.
Inside Out Justice pointed to a record recall rate, an overstretched Probation Service and a set of new licence restrictions. Together, it said, they threaten to send many of those released straight back to jail. It urged ministers to act now.
Around 700 prisoners left jails in England and Wales on 1 October 2026. It was the first day of earned progression under the Sentencing Act 2026. About 2,550 are due out by the end of the year, and roughly 4,500 by next summer.
Those eligible now go onto licence a third of the way through their sentence, not halfway. The group noted that each of them will spend longer under supervision as a result. They will also face the risk of recall for longer.
On Friday 26 September, prisons held 87,499 people, with around 1,500 places to spare. According to the Ministry of Justice, adult male prisons are 98 per cent full.
Recalls outpace releases
The group said recall numbers were already moving the other way. Licence recalls reached 51,419 in the year to March 2026, against 40,259 a year earlier. That jump of 11,160 is well over twice the number earned progression should free by next summer.
From January to March 2026, recalls totalled 13,193 and releases 12,977. The group said this was the first time on record that recalls had overtaken releases.
New crimes lie behind only a minority of recalls. In that quarter, officials logged breaches of licence conditions in 9,683 cases. Losing contact with a probation officer featured in 5,025, and a further charge in 2,891. A single recall can have several recorded reasons.
Since 31 March 2026, most people recalled serve a fixed 56 days in custody. That, the group argued, is enough time to lose a tenancy and a job. It is too short for any meaningful rehabilitation.
Tougher licence conditions
On the same day, the Ministry of Justice unveiled what it calls “the toughest supervision in British history”. Restriction zones will confine the highest-risk offenders to areas a few miles wide. Others face bans from pubs, clubs, football matches and public events.
The new rules also bring a presumption of electronic tagging on release. Random drug testing follows from next year.
Inside Out Justice said each extra condition creates one more line to cross. Under current practice, it said, any breach could mean a return to prison even without a new offence.
The group doubted that the system could enforce the rules fairly. The probation and police inspectorates issued a joint briefing on 29 September. It reportedly found only 55 per cent of GPS and radio-frequency tags went on in time. Some people waited up to five months.
Martin Jones, HM Chief Inspector of Probation, has said he is “not fully confident” that the service will cope.
According to probation sources quoted by The Guardian, approved accommodation in some areas is already full. They said some people may leave prison “straight on to the street”. Yet failing to live at an approved address appears in about a quarter of recalls.
Scott Dylan, founder of Inside Out Justice, said: “Today the front door of our prisons opens a little wider, but the back door is already spinning faster.”
He added: “The Government is proud of the toughest licence conditions in British history. But a condition is only as good as the system that enforces it fairly.”
He accepted that anyone posing a real risk to victims must face swift recall. That, he said, is exactly why recall should be kept for cases of risk.
The group wants an independent review of recall decisions, reporting before the earned progression tranches end. It also seeks graduated community sanctions for technical breaches.
It wants a guarantee that no one goes back to prison over a late tag or a lack of approved housing. It asks for monthly recall figures to appear with each release tranche, starting with the second on 13 October. Finally, it calls for investment in probation caseloads and in housing on release.
