The Probation Service in England and Wales is under significant strain, the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) has warned. The committee says this seriously limits the service’s ability to protect the public and cut reoffending.
Its latest report records that HM Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) spent £1.34 billion on probation in 2024/25. The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) puts the economic and social cost of adult reoffending at around £20.9 billion a year.
Recalls to prison have hit an all-time high. At the end of March 2025, the recall population stood at 13,583. That is a rise of 49 per cent since June 2021. Recalled prisoners now make up 15 per cent of the prison population.
Targets missed
Performance has worsened since the service returned to full public control in 2021. Overall reoffending has also risen. Last year the service met only seven of its 27 performance targets. Three years earlier, it met half of them.
HMPPS launched a programme, Our Future Probation Service, to reverse the decline. The PAC warns that it is unlikely to be enough. The MoJ does not have a strong record of delivering digital change. It has also yet to decide how it will change the supervision some offenders receive.
Those decisions could put the public at risk. The committee therefore wants the MoJ and HMPPS to state clearly how much risk they are prepared to accept. That would help them track operational and public protection risks.
Evidence to the inquiry showed that people classed as low-risk often need support to avoid reoffending. Yet the planned changes are likely to cut supervision for this group. They also involve a large rise in electronic monitoring.
The committee noted serious problems with electronic monitoring, including delays by Serco in fitting tags. It wants more information from the Government on the company’s performance. It also asks what role voluntary and private organisations will play to make up for reduced supervision.
Staff under strain
In 2021, the vacancy rate for probation officers stood at 14 per cent. By 2025 it had reached 21 per cent. Estimates suggest officers have worked at an average of 118 per cent of capacity for several years. Recent findings indicate the real figure is probably much higher. The inquiry heard that the service’s culture rests on ‘emotional strain’ and ‘trauma’.
The PAC doubts that HMPPS really understands how many staff it needs to improve. It wants HMPPS to explain when and how it will tell staff when workloads will fall to acceptable levels.
The committee also found a steep fall in the quality of risk assessments. In 2024, practitioners adequately assessed the risk of harm in only 28 per cent of cases. In 2018/19 the figure was 60 per cent. The report asks the MoJ for a clear timeline for improvement on key measures.
“The probation service in England and Wales is failing,” wrote Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown in the report. Sir Geoffrey, the committee’s Chair and Conservative MP for North Cotswolds, said record recalls showed where that failure ends. He found it “deeply alarming” to hear of staff working under immense pressure in a seemingly toxic environment.
A week before the report, Lord Timpson told a conference held by the charity Clinks that, while the prison system was struggling, the Probation Service was “sicker”.
